NEWSLETTER 18: MIGRATION AND THE BIRD FLU

I'm an internist/medical researcher who believes we are not going to see pandemic bird flu killing millions of people like the current media hype suggests as a result of birds migrating from endemic regions.

What I find fascinating is how migration is viewed by different people. The Post article described in large type how the Asian Avian Flu will inevitably arrive sooner or later. In small type it mentions a medical researcher who echos the opposite. In order for this to occur, there has to be two "hole-in-ones"; almost as difficult as the female dinosaurs in Jurassic Park spontaneously changing/mutating to males, which would include:

1. First the flu virus would have to mutate to a new strain and become rapidly transmittable from bird to bird. At the present, most birds in a flock stay healthy despite one member having the dreaded bird flu disease.
2. Second it has to mutate again in such a way that it acquires the ability to rapidly transmit itself from person to person. Presently an individual with bird flu doesn't easily pass it on to others.

These are both possible but not probable. They are definitely not inevitable as the media hype would have you believe. Sage advice would be to do the traditional things to avoid the flu like:

1. Take the flu shot each and every flu season.
2. Wash your hands.
3. Stay home when you are sick.
4. Try not to spread the flu to others by exercising proper hygiene.
5. Take Tamiflu as soon as you get the flu.

Besides migrating birds there is the parallel problem of illegal human migration and the spread of infectious disease. My friend's loyal and faithful nanny of many years is being deported for being here illegally. Concomitantly I admitted an illegal alien to the hospital with active TB and authorities were not interested initially. As I read the Post about President Bush talking about creating more secure boarders to keep the illegal aliens out, I was surprised no one cared that I "caught one." In fact, it wasn't until my patient refused to take his TB medications and threatened to go out and infect the good people of Jupiter with his tuberculosis germs that I got the authorities attention.

I think we should pay more attention to the underestimated illegal alien migration problem than to the risk of pandemic bird flu. I find the media has overestimated the bird flu pandemic risk so much that it is literally for the birds!

Sincerely:

Joseph Saponaro, MD, DABIM, FACP, CPI, CCI, CCTI, CCRC, CCRP
Member, ACFEI (American College of Forensic Examiners Institute of Forensic Science)
Expert Medical Witness, ExpertMD
PI (Principal Investigator), DSI (Drug Study Institute)
Board Certified Internist, JPMC (Jupiter Preventive Medicine Center)
DABIM (Diplomat American Board of Internal Medicine)
FACP (Fellow American College of Physicians)
CPI (Certified Physician Investigator) by the APPI (American Academy of Pharmaceutical Physicians)
CCTI (Certified Clinical Trial Investigator) by the ACRP (Association of Clinical Research Professionals)
CCI (Certified Clinical Investigator) by the DIA (Drug Information Association)
CCRC (Certified Clinical Research Coordinator) by the ACRP (Association of Clinical Research Professionals)
CCRP (Certified Clinical Research Professional) by SoCRA (Society of Clinical Research Associates)
Member, SIMPD (Society for Innovative Medical Practice Design)
Member, ACPM (American College Preventive Medicine)
Ethics Committee Member, Jupiter Medical Center
IRB Member, Jupiter Medical Center
Founder, CertifiedResearchers.com